The Royalty Mess

Published: September 28, 2007

A yearlong investigation has now provided unassailable evidence that the Interior Department abdicated its responsibility to collect royalties from oil and gas companies that drill on public lands, chiefly the Gulf of Mexico. The report increases the pressure on Congress to find a way to recover the money. It also increases the pressure on Dirk Kempthorne, the interior secretary, to accelerate his reforms of the Minerals Management Service, the agency that failed to collect the royalties.

The investigation grew out of the discovery that
a loophole in leases signed by the Clinton administration in 1998 and 1999
had allowed oil companies to duck royalties due on oil drilled on federal lands.

Midlevel federal officials found the loophole in 2000, but nothing was done to close it or collect the lost revenues until 2006.

It has already cost taxpayers more than $1.5 billion, a figure that could rise to $10 billion over the course of the leases.

The Interior Department has been hammered by Congress, but the strongest criticism has come from the department’s inspector general, Earl E. Devaney, whose final report was disclosed by Edmund L. Andrews in The Times on Monday. The report attributed the agency’s failure not so much to ineptitude as to lazy management, ethical lapses and a culture of secrecy that hid mistakes.

Top officials at the agency also seemed more concerned about the fortunes of the industry they were supposed to regulate than those of the federal government. In one case turned up by Mr. Devaney, officials decided it would impose a “hardship” on oil companies to demand that they calculate the back interest they owed. Officials were also said to have blocked efforts by four departmental auditors to recover the unpaid royalties.

Congress is now in a mood to recover the money on its own. A provision in the House energy bill would charge companies that refuse to amend the flawed leases a separate fee for each barrel of oil that they produce in the future. A Senate proposal would impose a surtax on new oil pumped by the companies involved that would be offset by any overdue royalties they were willing to pay.

Mr. Kempthorne has made personnel changes at the top of the Minerals Management Service.
But Mr. Devaney’s report makes it clear that he still has a long way to go
to change the agency’s
dysfunctional culture.

Speaking of dysfunctional....

John Mica
"Energy Independence: Record vs. Rhetoric":

Energy independence has surfaced as a defining issue in the current elections. Are most candidates and both parties truly committed? To help distinguish the demonstrated level of support for homegrown, clean energy alternatives, we examined the voting records of current U.S. Representatives and Senators on bills vital to promoting those interests. Key pieces of legislation included goals for independence, and subsidies for the development of alternatives compared to subsidies for drilling and digging. We then compared votes on these issues with campaign contributions from major oil interests. The results show strong inverse correlations between political contributions from big oil and votes for energy independence.


Creating Long-term Energy Alternatives for the Nation (CLEAN) Act

Title I: Ending Subsidies for Big Oil Act--denying a deduction for income attributable to domestic production of oil, natural gas, or their related primary products.

Title II: Royalty Relief for American Consumers Act--to incorporate specified price thresholds for royalties on oil & gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.

Title III: Strategic Energy Efficiency And Renewables Reserve--makes the Reserve available to accelerate the use of clean domestic renewable energy resources and alternative fuel

Proponents support voting YES because:

This legislation seeks to end the unwarranted tax breaks & subsidies which have been lavished on Big Oil over the last several years, at a time of record prices at the gas pump and record oil industry profits. Big Oil is hitting the American taxpayer not once, not twice, but three times. They are hitting them at the pump, they are hitting them through the Tax Code, and they are hitting them with royalty holidays put into oil in 1995 and again in 2005.

It is time to vote for the integrity of America's resources, to vote for the end of corporate welfare, to vote for a new era in the management of our public energy resources.
Drill-happy Mica VOTED NO
Drill-happy Mica casts oil-spill blame? Not slick
Scott Maxwell
TAKING NAMES
10:33 PM EDT, May 25, 2010

Of all the people assigning blame for the massive oil spill in the gulf,
it's awfully strange that one of them is John Mica.

John Mica — the most drill-happy congressman Florida has ever elected.

John Mica — the guy who told me a few years ago:

"I voted to drill in the Everglades in the 1970s …and I'd do it again."

John Mica
— the only member of Florida's congressional delegation unwilling to sign a letter in 2003 that called for drilling restrictions in the eastern gulf.

John Mica — whose brother runs the Florida Petroleum Council.

Yes, that John Mica.


In fact, the Winter Park Republican is not only looking to cast blame, he's pretty sure he's found the culprit: Barack Obama.

At a hearing last week, Mica presented his timeline for what he called "The Obama Oil Spill."

Not the British Petroleum Oil Spill, mind you. In fact, Mica went so far as to say: "I am not going to point fingers at BP, the private industry, when it is government's responsibility to set the standards, to do the inspections."

Apparently, big government wasn't big enough.

And why blame the company that actually ran the rig when you can blame the head of the opposing political party?

To tell the truth, I absolutely believe that officials in the Obama administration are partly to blame. The rotating door of lobbyists-turned-regulators has become part of Washington's culture. It's engrained in both parties. And it's repulsive.

In fact, word is already starting to leak out that some of these supposed regulators accepted trips, gifts and meals from the very oil companies they were supposed to be regulating.

Those folks should be force-fed tar balls till they choke.

But, all that said, it takes some Cirque du Soleil-style acrobatics to blame the current administration for this blowout without also blaming the company that actually let it happen — and the politicians like Mica who cheer-led drilling every step of the way.

That's like pushing to build a playground in the middle of an eight-lane highway — and then acting surprised when a kid finally gets hit by a car … and blaming the highway patrol for not preventing it.

And that's one of the problems with the deflection game Mica is trying to play: It's so absurd, he looks foolish trying to play it.

Until now, Mica has been so unapologetic and unabashed about his passion for drilling, it was actually refreshing.

There was no hiding behind anyone else or excuses. He stood tall and proud — often alone.

But now that something has gone wrong — just as many predicted — Mica isn't standing quite so close to the plate.

In chatting with him Tuesday, he remained as drill-committed as ever. Asked whether the recent catastrophe had muted his enthusiasm for drilling, he quickly responded: "No. Absolutely not."

"When we had the Exxon Valdez, we didn't stop transporting."

But you know what, congressman? We also blamed Exxon.

Mica actually said he blamed more than just the current administration. He said the problems started under George W. Bush — when many of the deepwater leases were first granted and when many of the current officials were hired — and that he'd given that administration grief in the past, too. Mica said he still does.

But much of that balance was lost when Mica unveiled his "Obama Oil Spill Timeline."

And if you probe a little deeper, that seems intentional.

At one point during our discussion, when asking whether it was really fair to place the blame on the White House — and not even the oil company involved
— Mica shot back:
"Well, they gave Bush holy hell for Katrina after only four or five days."

Florida Bay's ecology on the brink of collapse
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused over
9 million gallons of oil
to be spilled into the
Gulf of Mexico in
2005.

Is that was this is really all about?
Trying to turn BP's blowout into Obama's Katrina?
As I said before, I think there's a lot of blame to go around — from current regulators to BP, neither one of which seems able to clean up their own mess.

But anyone who thinks the politicians who've been leading the drill-baby-drill cheers aren't at the center of this oil slick as well needs a reality check.

Scott Maxwell can be reached at smaxwell@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-6141.

John Mica on Energy & Oil

Republican Representative (FL-7)

Voted NO on keeping moratorium on drilling for oil offshore.

Vote to amend a bill providing for exploration & production of mineral resources on the outer Continental Shelf. The underlying bill revises the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act's guidelines for natural gas lease administration. Voting YES on the amendment would maintain the 25-year moratorium on oil and gas drilling in environmentally sensitive areas offshore. Voting NO on the amendment would lift the 25-year moratorium, and establish incentives to renegotiate existing leases that fail to include market-based price caps.

Proponents support voting YES because:

This amendment would preserve the longstanding moratorium so important to coastal States. The amendment would also preserve the underlying bill's one redeeming feature, the renegotiating of the cash-cow leases now pouring billions of dollars into already stuffed oil industry coffers.

We have only 5% of the world's population, but 30% of the world's automobiles, and we produce 45% of the world's automotive carbon dioxide emissions. This addiction harms our environment, our economy and our national security. This underlying bill attempts to bribe coastal States into drilling off their shores by promising them a lot more money.

Opponents support voting NO because:

For 30 years, opponents of American energy have cloaked their arguments in an environmental apocalypse. They have tried to make the argument that no matter what we do, it will destroy the environment.

This amendment takes out all of the energy production. It is a callous disregard for the jobs that have been lost over the last 30 years of following an anti-energy policy. The people who work in oil and gas, their jobs are in the Middle East or Canada. We have exported their jobs. If this amendment passes, we are going to send the rest of them. We should know how important it is to create jobs in this country, to create clean natural gas in this country, so that it can be the bridge to the future. Reference: Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act; Bill H R 4761 ; vote number 2006-354 on Jun 29, 2006

Voted YES on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy.

Vote to pass a bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize o $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for "clean coal" programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. It would add to the requirement that gasoline sold in the United States contain a specified volume of ethanol. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers. Reference: Energy Policy Act of 2004; Bill HR 4503 ; vote number 2004-241 on Jun 15, 2004

Voted YES on implementing Bush-Cheney national energy policy.

Energy Omnibus bill: Vote to adopt the conference report on the bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize a $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for "clean coal" programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. The bill would call for producers of Ethanol to double their output. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers. Reference: Bill sponsored by Tauzin, R-LA; Bill HR.6 ; vote number 2003-630 on Nov 18, 2003

Voted NO on raising CAFE standards; incentives for alternative fuels.

Require a combined corporate average fuel efficiency [CAFE] standard for passenger automobiles and light trucks, including sport utility vehicles, of 26 mpg in 2005 and of 27.5 mpg in 2007. It also would offer incentives for alternative fuel vehicles. Bill HR 4 ; vote number 2001-311 on Aug 1, 2001

Voted NO on prohibiting oil drilling & development in ANWR.

Amendment to maintain the current prohibition on oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by striking language opening the reserve up to development.

Rated 0% by the CAF, indicating opposition to energy independence.

Mica scores 0% by CAF on energy issues

OnTheIssues.org interprets the 2005-2006 CAF scores as follows:

About the CAF (from their website, www.ourfuture.org):

The Campaign for America's Future (CAF) is a center for ideas and action that works to build an enduring majority for progressive change. The Campaign advances a progressive economic agenda and a vision of the future that works for the many, not simply the few. The Campaign is leading the fight for America's priorities--against privatization of Social Security, for investment in energy independence, good jobs and a sustainable economy, for an ethical and accountable Congress and for high quality public education.

About the CAF report, "Energy Independence: Record vs. Rhetoric":

Click here for definitions & background information on Energy & Oil.
Click here for a profile of John Mica.
Click here for HouseMatch answers by John Mica.
Agree? Disagree? Voice your opinions on Energy & Oil in The Forum.
Click here for a summary of John Mica's positions on all issues.
Click here for issue positions of other FL politicians.

DID YOU REALLY THINK
THE OIL LOBBYISTS,
like John Mica's brother,
DON'T OWN
THE DEMOCRATS AS WELL AS THE REPUBLICANS???

SILLY CITIZENS:(

AUGUST 2009
Interior plans offshore drilling despite questions

Democrats
Behind
Latest Drive For Drilling
Sens. Dorgan, Bingaman lead "surprise" proposal

Florida should forget about drilling in gulf
Published Friday, March 19, 2010

Drilling off Florida's coast won't increase America's independence from foreign oil, lower gasoline prices or raise billions of dollars annually for the state. • Those are among the predictable findings of a new nonpartisan report on offshore drilling commissioned by the Florida Senate president. It is inconceivable that any responsible state lawmaker still would consider leveraging the state's pristine shoreline — and the tourism customers it draws — for such little return. Yet Rep. Dean Cannon, R-Orlando, who is in line to be the next House speaker, is doggedly pushing a plan that could put drilling platforms within 10 miles of the west coast.

The report produced by a Tallahassee think tank offers some of the best information yet to refute the propaganda from an anonymous oil industry group, Florida Energy Associates, that wants Florida's ban lifted. The report shows that the most-generous industry estimates for what Florida could collect from drilling in state and federal waters is far less than $2 billion — the annual amount suggested by the energy group's economist.

The Collins Center for Public Policy produced "Potential Impacts of Oil & Gas Exploration in the Gulf" on behalf of the Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida, a group set up by the Legislature in 2005 and chaired by former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, a Republican. Senate President Jeff Atwater, R-North Palm Beach, asked the commission to take on the issue late last year due to concerns about a lack of neutral information on drilling.

The 40-page report uses a question-and-answer format to address 31 issues that have arisen since Florida Energy Associates began its push last year. It says the risk of a devastating oil spill off Florida's coasts has greatly diminished due to technology and safety precautions since the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster. But it also acknowledges the risk remains whether the drilling occurs in state waters close to shore or in the federal waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Most striking: Researchers don't think there is even enough oil in state waters to sustain the country's gasoline needs for a week. Advances in seismic technology may make it easier to find natural gas deposits, the report said. But it's not been tested in either the eastern gulf or near Florida. And harvesting natural gas in Florida would displace American-mined coal as a fuel, not foreign oil. The impact on energy costs would be minimal.

The report also states the obvious: Lifting Florida's ban would make it more likely Congress would lift its 2006 ban on the more profitable resources farther out in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which extends as much as 125 miles from Florida's shore. The industry's endgame may be to get the drilling ban in state waters lifted merely to make it impossible to continue with the ban in federal waters.

But the eastern gulf doesn't have nearly the deposits found in the federal waters of the central and western gulf — the areas that benefit Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. And none of those states have received windfalls anywhere close to $2 billion annually from offshore drilling.

If the federal ban was lifted, Florida's annual share of revenues could be as low as $20 million (based on traditional government estimates) to as high as $180 million (based on industry estimates), according to the report. New jobs would number between 1,000 to 2,500.

The report purposely does not estimate revenues from drilling in state waters, except to say they would likely be less than those of other states with greater deposits. Alabama generates the most income from near-shore production: $200 million a year. What does $200 million buy in Florida? Not much compared to a $66 billion state budget. Or compared to the potential risk to the No. 1 industry, tourism.

Supporters of drilling off Florida's shores are evoking a patriotic duty to solve America's dependence on foreign oil. Cannon warns of riots in the streets if Floridians cannot get food because there is no fuel for trucks to deliver to groceries. But these are the facts: The estimated deposits in Florida's state-owned waters aren't even enough to fuel America's needs for a week, and lifting the drilling ban would provide relatively little money for the state. It would open the beaches and the state's tourism industry to additional risk — regardless of new drilling technology.
The Senate has the answers it needs to tell Cannon to forget about drilling.

Drilling in Florida waters

The state owns submerged lands from the coast to 10 miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and three miles offshore in the Atlantic Ocean. Here are some statistics that speak to drilling issues.

100 million

Government estimates of barrels of oil in state- owned water

140 million

Barrels of oil the U.S. uses in a week, or 20 million barrels a day

Unknown

What Florida could collect from drilling in state-owned waters, though experts expect less than other gulf states because of geological formations.

$200 million

Average annual amount Alabama collects for drilling in its state-owned waters — the most of any gulf state.

$189 million

Amount the Florida Lottery is expected to raise this year to enhance the state's education offerings

$66 billion

Florida's 2009-2010 state budget

Source: Potential Impacts of Oil & Gas Exploration in the Gulf, Collins Center for Public Policy; 2009 Florida General Appropriations Act (SB 2600)

Obama budget rescinds energy industry tax breaks
By H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press Writer
Thu May 7, 2009 8:48 pm ET

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama outlined a budget plan Thursday that would end $26 billion in oil and gas industry tax breaks, point to a new direction for dealing with nuclear waste and shift government aggressively toward helping to develop renewable energy sources.

Obama called the tax break to the oil and gas industry "unjustifiable loopholes" in the tax system that in most cases other companies do not get.
Why isn’t Florida

LEADING the WORLD

in solar energy production?


Because

“Some People” are Pennywise

and Future $tupid
Congress left for the August recess deadlocked over how to address $4-a-gallon gasoline. Democratic proposals to tap the nation's petroleum reserve, curb oil speculation and force oil companies to drill on already leased federal lands were blocked by Republicans trying to force votes on offshore drilling. Yet any vote on drilling is likely to force the Republicans' hand, since it will likely be packaged with unpopular?!?!! proposals to tap the petroleum reserve
and
recoup
unpaid
royalties

from the late 1990s
to pay for
renewable energy projects.

Oil brokers sex scandal may affect(?!?!?!) drilling debate

By H. Josef Hebert
Associated Press
Published: Friday, September 12, 2008 7:11 PM EDT
WASHINGTON — A scandal involving sex, drugs and — uh, offshore oil drilling.

It’s a strange mix, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time for those in Congress pressing to expand oil and gas development off America’s beaches while trying to stave off an election-year rush by Democrats to impose new taxes and royalties on the oil industry.

An Interior Department investigation describing a “culture of substance abuse and promiscuity” by workers at the agency that issues offshore drilling leases and collects royalties hit lawmakers Wednesday just as they prepared for votes next week on expanding offshore drilling.

“On the eve of Congress starting this big debate you’ve got a horror story of mismanagement and misconduct in programs that are going to be a key part of the discussion,” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said in an interview, adding that it can’t help but influence the debate.
The two-year, $5.3 million investigation by Interior’s inspector general found workers at the Minerals Management Service’s royalty collection office in Denver partying, having sex, using drugs and accepting gifts and ski trips and golf outings from energy company representatives with whom they did government business.

The investigations exposed “a culture of ethical failure” and an agency rife with conflicts of interest, Inspector General Earl E. Devaney said.

Between 2002 and 2006, 19 oil marketers — nearly a third of the Denver office staff — received gifts and gratuities from oil and gas companies, including Chevron Corp., Shell, Hess Corp. and Denver-based Gary-Williams Energy Corp., the investigators found.

“Employees frequently consumed alcohol at industry functions, had used cocaine and marijuana, and had sexual relationships with oil and natural gas company representatives” who referred to some of the government workers as the “MMS Chicks.”

The director of the royalty program had a consulting job on the side for a company that paid him $30,000 for marketing its services to various oil and gas companies, the report said.

MMS Director Randall Luthi said in an interview the agency was taking the report “extremely seriously” and would weigh taking appropriate action in coming months.

Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne in a statement released Thursday vowed to take swift action, saying that he was “outraged by the immoral behavior, illegal activities and appalling misconduct of several former and long-serving career employees.”

“We must and we will eliminate any remaining negative elements in the Minerals Management Service,” Kempthorne said.

Kempthorne and Luthi memos released late Thursday, said that they were considering random drug testing for agency employees.

The impact of the scandal in Congress, where lawmakers are debating an expansion of the offshore oil and gas leasing program by allowing drilling in areas long off limits, was immediate.

“This is why we must not allow Big Oil’s agenda to be jammed through Congress,” said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., who strongly opposes any expansion of offshore drilling, especially closer to Florida. He said the report “shows the oil industry holds shocking sway over the administration and even key federal employees.”

“This IG report has it all — sex, drugs and the Bush administration officials once again in cahoots with Big Oil,” said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., whose Joint Economic Committee released a report last year claiming the Minerals Management Service has failed to collect millions of dollars in oil royalties.

Republicans and Democrats promised further scrutiny of the Interior Department agency which last year handled $4.3 billion in royalty-in-kind payments from energy companies drilling on federal lands. Under the program oil companies give the government oil in lieu of cash and the MMS office in turn sells the oil on the open market.

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said the IG report “raises very serious questions” about the royalty collection process, something especially troublesome “given the potential for expanded domestic drilling.” He said some basic reforms in the royalty-in-kind program should be included in drilling legislation.

Wyden said the program should be suspended to “clean house” at the federal agency and “bring back the process of rigorous audits and accountability.”

Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, announced a hearing next week on the investigaton. “This whole IG report reads like a script from a television miniseries and one that cannot air during family viewing time,” he said.

But Republicans rejected suggestions that the scandal makes the need for more offshore oil and gas any less urgent.

House Democrats on Wednesday offered a broader drilling proposal than they had floated previously. It would lift all moratoria on drilling 100 miles from shore and allow energy development beyond 50 miles from the coast if a state agrees. Waters closer than 50 miles would continue to be protected.

The drilling measure is part of a broader energy package that also would roll back tax breaks for the largest oil companies and require them to pay additional royalties, with the money to be used to spur renewable energy programs and conservation.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., called it “a strong bill that will increase responsible drilling and invest in renewable energy” and said those criticizing it would “rather have a political issue.”

But House Republican leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, accused the Democrats of “trying to pull a hoax on the American people.” He said the plan would result “in little or no new American energy production” because states would share no royalties and have little financial incentives to allow drilling.

The Senate, meanwhile, is expected next week to take up several drilling proposals, including one that would open waters off the Atlantic from Virginia to Georgia and the eastern Gulf off Florida to drilling but keep the bans in place elsewhere. That plan also would allow for a 50-mile coastal buffer.

Associated Press writer Dina Cappiello contributed to this report.


The week before Christmas in

OUR

Senate

"Unintended"

Loophole in Energy Bill

will cost the

Nation's solar industry plenty

but Senators want to keep it- intentionally this time

Lessons from The Political Process ( a good read)

One thing you learn in Washington, D.C., is that politics is never predictable.

The Interior Department is under fire for other problems in the royalty program as well.

It is struggling without much success to correct leasing mistakes

that could allow oil companies

to escape $10 billion in royalties

over the next decade or so.

''There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars out there,

and I don't think we should be scared of the oil companies,''

said Bobby L. Maxwell,

a former senior auditor who,

as a private citizen,

sued the Kerr-McGee Corporation,

claiming it

intentionally cheated

the

government

(READ YOU & I)

of royalties for oil and gas

it produced in the Gulf of Mexico.

"As we all know, Florida is one of the sunniest places in America,

but this is the sort of thing,

if they can prove it works(??!!??),

it can be done

in sunny places all over the world,"

Clinton said.

OH NOOOOooooo!!!

About a decade ago,

while "Mr. Bill",

aka former President Clinton.

was "BUSY"

allowing oil companies to

duck royalties due

on oil drilled on federal lands,

while taking advantage
of a starry eyed intern
while dishonoring his marriage
and America yet again-

Our local Elected leaders hatched plans

for transforming about

1,800 acres along Interstate 4 in southwest Volusia County

Osteen NOT divided about it's future;

But OUR "heavily lobbyied"

elected officials ARE

Ontario is proposing a solar farm similar to this one Amstein, Germany. The Ontario plant will be able to supply enough electricity to power up to 15,000 homes on sunny days.

Imagine this on S.R. 415 and/or S.R. 46 instead of the

LOW PAYING RETAIL SPRAWL JOBS

planned by the land owning lobbyists in

OUR CITY AND COUNTY government!!!

Signing Your Economic Stimulus Over to the Saudis?

By Marianne Lavelle Wed Jan 23, 2:42 PM ET

President Bush's economic stimulus plan would put $800 in the pocket of almost every taxpayer. Given that Congress is pretty much on the same page, why isn't that prospect buoying everyone's hopes?

Maybe one reason is that Wall Street and consumers alike realize that unless oil prices drop significantly

--which may well happen if we fall into a recession--

many will be emptying that newfound stash just to pay for the increase in gasoline and other energy prices this year.

Let's use the most recent predictions of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which was presuming (at least, as of January 8) that the economy would continue to grow and that the price of oil would fall somewhat--to an average of $87 a barrel this year. EIA has been conservative, estimating a year ago that the 2007 oil price would be $64.42 per barrel when it turned out to be $72. EIA now predicts that the average price for gasoline in 2008 will be $3.14 a gallon, up about 12 percent over last year. That would mean that the average U.S. household with two cars, which consumes 1,143 gallons of gasoline, will be paying about $377 more for gasoline. That's nearly half of the money that Uncle Sam would be handing over to one taxpayer in the hopes of spurring consumer spending.

But the bite could be far bigger for some. Households that use heating oil--a small percentage nationwide but a significant number in the Middle Atlantic and New England states--are paying on average $560 more this year than last year to get through the winter. Even a recession (and lower oil prices) won't help; that money is already out the door. For an average two-car household that uses heating oil, then, one entire proposed economic stimulus payment is on track to be spent just paying this year's premium on oil and gasoline. And let's hope there's another taxpayer in the house, because higher fuel costs would eat up 17 percent of the second wage earner's economic stimulus check, too.

If you're in the 58 percent of households that heat with natural gas, you may feel you've dodged a bullet, because you are paying only $70 more for heat over last year. But what if your two cars happen to be--and this is not an unusual combination in the suburbs--a Chevy Suburban that gets about 15 miles per gallon and a BMW sedan that gets 19 mpg? If you drive an average amount, divided evenly between the two vehicles, it's expected that you'll spend $453 more for gasoline in 2008. In that household, about 65 percent of one taxpayer's economic stimulus cash would be going to pay for the increase in energy prices.

Of course, the wild card, as mentioned, is whether an economic slowdown could trigger a major energy price drop. That's what has happened in the past, but the oil market's gyrations suggest that it isn't a given. Oil initially fell more than $3 per barrel to just over $87 on recession worries, but when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today, the price began to climb again. That's because investors seek out commodities like oil as a hedge against inflation, which they fear the Fed could trigger as it tries to head off recession.

Let's use the most recent predictions of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which was presuming (at least, as of January 8) that the economy would continue to grow and that the price of oil would fall somewhat--to an average of $87 a barrel this year. EIA has been conservative, estimating a year ago that the 2007 oil price would be $64.42 per barrel when it turned out to be $72. EIA now predicts that the average price for gasoline in 2008 will be $3.14 a gallon, up about 12 percent over last year. That would mean that the average U.S. household with two cars, which consumes 1,143 gallons of gasoline, will be paying about $377 more for gasoline. That's nearly half of the money that Uncle Sam would be handing over to one taxpayer in the hopes of spurring consumer spending.

But the bite could be far bigger for some. Households that use heating oil--a small percentage nationwide but a significant number in the Middle Atlantic and New England states--are paying on average $560 more this year than last year to get through the winter. Even a recession (and lower oil prices) won't help; that money is already out the door. For an average two-car household that uses heating oil, then, one entire proposed economic stimulus payment is on track to be spent just paying this year's premium on oil and gasoline. And let's hope there's another taxpayer in the house, because higher fuel costs would eat up 17 percent of the second wage earner's economic stimulus check, too.

If you're in the 58 percent of households that heat with natural gas, you may feel you've dodged a bullet, because you are paying only $70 more for heat over last year. But what if your two cars happen to be--and this is not an unusual combination in the suburbs--a Chevy Suburban that gets about 15 miles per gallon and a BMW sedan that gets 19 mpg? If you drive an average amount, divided evenly between the two vehicles, it's expected that you'll spend $453 more for gasoline in 2008. In that household, about 65 percent of one taxpayer's economic stimulus cash would be going to pay for the increase in energy prices.

Of course, the wild card, as mentioned, is whether an economic slowdown could trigger a major energy price drop. That's what has happened in the past, but the oil market's gyrations suggest that it isn't a given. Oil initially fell more than $3 per barrel to just over $87 on recession worries, but when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today, the price began to climb again. That's because investors seek out commodities like oil as a hedge against inflation, which they fear the Fed could trigger as it tries to head off recession.

But put aside the future, with all its unpredictability. Up to now, a good number of economists had come to believe that the economy could simply shrug off high energy prices. But the reality is that the average U.S. household, which paid about $1,500 for gasoline in 2001, had to fork over more than $3,200 in 2007 for the very same product--a bonanza for the oil-producing states and big oil companies but for few others. If the tables now turn and the economy begins to suffer, how many economists Let's use the most recent predictions of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which was presuming (at least, as of January 8) that the economy would continue to grow and that the price of oil would fall somewhat--to an average of $87 a barrel this year. EIA has been conservative, estimating a year ago that the 2007 oil price would be $64.42 per barrel when it turned out to be $72. EIA now predicts that the average price for gasoline in 2008 will be $3.14 a gallon, up about 12 percent over last year. That would mean that the average U.S. household with two cars, which consumes 1,143 gallons of gasoline, will be paying about $377 more for gasoline. That's nearly half of the money that Uncle Sam would be handing over to one taxpayer in the hopes of spurring consumer spending.

But the bite could be far bigger for some. Households that use heating oil--a small percentage nationwide but a significant number in the Middle Atlantic and New England states--are paying on average $560 more this year than last year to get through the winter. Even a recession (and lower oil prices) won't help; that money is already out the door. For an average two-car household that uses heating oil, then, one entire proposed economic stimulus payment is on track to be spent just paying this year's premium on oil and gasoline. And let's hope there's another taxpayer in the house, because higher fuel costs would eat up 17 percent of the second wage earner's economic stimulus check, too.

If you're in the 58 percent of households that heat with natural gas, you may feel you've dodged a bullet, because you are paying only $70 more for heat over last year. But what if your two cars happen to be--and this is not an unusual combination in the suburbs--a Chevy Suburban that gets about 15 miles per gallon and a BMW sedan that gets 19 mpg? If you drive an average amount, divided evenly between the two vehicles, it's expected that you'll spend $453 more for gasoline in 2008. In that household, about 65 percent of one taxpayer's economic stimulus cash would be going to pay for the increase in energy prices.

Of course, the wild card, as mentioned, is whether an economic slowdown could trigger a major energy price drop. That's what has happened in the past, but the oil market's gyrations suggest that it isn't a given. Oil initially fell more than $3 per barrel to just over $87 on recession worries, but when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates today, the price began to climb again. That's because investors seek out commodities like oil as a hedge against inflation, which they fear the Fed could trigger as it tries to head off recession.

But put aside the future, with all its unpredictability. Up to now, a good number of economists had come to believe that the economy could simply shrug off high energy prices. But the reality is that the average U.S. household, which paid about $1,500 for gasoline in 2001, had to fork over more than $3,200 in 2007 for the very same product--a bonanza for the oil-producing states and big oil companies but for few others. If the tables now turn and the economy begins to suffer, how many economists won't blame, in part, the drain of paying more each year for oil?prices.

But the reality is that the average U.S. household, which paid about $1,500 for gasoline in 2001, had to fork over more than $3,200 in 2007 for the very same product--a bonanza for the oil-producing states and big oil companies but for few others. If the tables now turn and the economy begins to suffer, how many economists won't blame, in part, the drain of paying more each year for oil?
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